I had a weird feeling with ETH as the price began to fade lower. I completely ignored the H&S pattern that was FULLY formed on the 4-Hr chart and didn't even cover the possibility that we could explode south. I am guilty of becoming emotionally involved with crypto. In retrospect, the H&S pattern on the 4hr stuck out like a sore thumb. I wanted to believe we have hit bottom and will make moves higher. Well, that is the past and now back to my old ways with a clear head and a pissed-off attitude. I am holding a bunch of ETH I left on the table from many profitable trades which had no doubt clouded my judgment! So let's get real! ETH broke the primary dotted trend which made defined entry points difficult to calculate. We are trading back into the Value Area and approaching the 100-day moving average and the Point-of-control at about $120.00. The short-term ETH price action has turned very BEARISH with price action over-extended to the downside. If we breach the 100MA, $100 is the next logical downside support for psychological reasons. There is no defined trend and with the large selling in volume the 100MA, POC, and .618 are all areas close enough to each other to be considered support areas. I do not recommend buying any ETH until price action becomes stable, or we near the value area low. It is very possible they are gonna run this higher in an explosive move as we near the Hard Fork. We are in head-game territory looking for perceived value and explosive upside potential to sell into. My trading strategy with all my cryptos has been to Dollar-Cost-Average into the token and 4hr lows or as close as I can get, and sell when I can squeeze out at least %20 profit. I am disappointed in my misread of the H&S pattern on the 4-hr, but I am not going to kick myself too badly since I have been doing well with my crypto trading the last 4 months. I am not getting rich, but I am holding a bunch of cryptos I left on the table with the profit I have made. This chart is a bit more complex than my usual TA because I am trying to find a strong support area. The green solid lines are the developing point-of-control where %70 percent of the transactions are taking place. The point-of-control is the solid red line where the most recent action has been and where we can look price to fall on low volume. We are still nearly %50 percent above the low, so I cannot say we are in a Bearish trend reversal. We are in a short term bearish momentum but still would have to breach the $80.00 level to consider this a continuation of the Bear market. My strategy -- I am not buying anything until the issue surrounding the .618 fib level, 100MA, and POC have demonstrated they are going to hold or become breached! Best, Biff
The price is forming a short term bottom, which should be foreseen as the price reached fib 0.5 retracement level at 125. but in the big picture , the down trend is very manifestly clear. I would add more short position once the price reached 130-135 zoom. note: the price tick is from Bitmex.