The price action tells us "I want to stay flat and am in a tight range. But the trend shows upward, without question. The variation is so small that the statistical trend indicator ( linear regression) points upwards and bends even more upwards every hour. Because there is almost no variance, it bends upwards even when the price is below the regression line. This is unusual and predicst strong impulses (trying to move somewhere, the way we can see it on my chart). Next chart (i will add as comment, illustrating the linear regression channels that shows you what I'm talking about, in different timeframes, all showing upward momentum). I know people get confused by too many indicators/lines on chart that is why I did not include it/them on the main chart.
PRICE ACTION ETH is probably the most fully developed example of the change in market sentiment since the start of April’s bullish rally. The 1D candle that closed yesterday showed incredible indecision; and when the new daily candle started; the bears immediately filled the downside wick. The current 4H candle has wicked below the 168 support; however, this price range has been in play since September 2018 – so don’t expect it to be easily blown through. Continuing to analyse the 4H, a consolidation between 170-175 would establish the pattern for a further leg down into the $155 range – as well as giving the RSI an opportunity to settle back towards the median. OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX) Long: 2.48 Days Short: 0.37 Days RELATIVE STRENGTHS Micro (5m): Weak Short Term (4h): Hidden Bullish Divergence Mid Term (1D): Weakening Macro (1W): Hidden Bearish ON BALANCE VOLUME Mid Term (1D): Higher Macro (1W): Lower KEY PRICE AREAS Resistance: 190, 195, 255 Support: 170, 155, 151 (28D MA) PREVIOUS ANALYSIS 2019-04-10 2019-04-09 2019-04-08 2019-04-07 2019-03-18
The SMAs are rolling over from bearish to bullish: the 50 has mounted the 100 and 150; the 200 has been mounted by the 20; the 200 will fall within a week, the fuscha lines tacked on to the 50 and the 200 give a predication of ETHS Golden Cross. You can see where I made good money trading the SMAs and then lost it using oscillators. I'm really pissed at myself, so this isn't advice. The following chart is 2017. Pay attn. to the overbought stoch and RSI : https://www.tradingview.com/x/MNvAJiTd/ I may add that the Stoch RSI which has predicted doom all bear market was worthless. Here is the present, where we see the stoch and RSI beginning to get overbought, where it may be expected to stay (with small dips.) https://www.tradingview.com/x/ow8DvyPN/ Long story short, the rules are changing. One set of rules that I learned in the bear market was looking at overbought indicators and mercilessly shorting with stop ladders. Well, that's not working (esp when the declines just miss my take profits.)